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Positivity Can Change Your Life
04-11-2014, 02:11 PM (This post was last modified: 04-11-2014 02:11 PM by DonJohnson.)
Post: #31
RE: Positivity Can Change Your Life
incorrect.


everyone wants to be royalty/elite/rich/alpha since the dawn of time. who wants to be a peasant?


Brutus, et tu?
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04-11-2014, 04:06 PM
Post: #32
RE: Positivity Can Change Your Life
(04-11-2014 02:11 PM)DonJohnson Wrote:  incorrect.


everyone wants to be royalty/elite/rich/alpha since the dawn of time. who wants to be a peasant?


Brutus, et tu?

A man a few hundred years back who owned his own land, was king on his own land. Trespass on it at your own peril. Peasants are king nowhere.

That is also not what everybody wants in todays world. I imagine this was even less the case as you go back through time.

I guess it didn't matter whether we elected Clinton or Trump.
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04-14-2014, 07:43 AM
Post: #33
RE: Positivity Can Change Your Life
The Positivity Delusion

Louis Gottschalk was someone you might have seen at a Mensa meeting. Gottschalk, who died in 2008, was a renowned neuroscientist and professor at the University of California at Irvine. Late in life, according to news reports, he lost millions in your basic Nigerian Internet scam.

Behavioral economists would surely attribute Gottschalk's lapse to what they call the "positivity delusion."

"We're far more inclined to embrace positive information about our own investments than negative information. We often turn that off," says Tali Sharot, author of "The Optimism Bias: A Tour of Our Irrationally Positive Brain."

What if the "power of positive thinking" is simply a numbing drumbeat that reinforces the positivity delusion, leading us to make blockheaded business and investment decisions?

"You have to at least entertain the possibility that the rustling in the grass could turn out to be a lion and eat you up," says Barbara Ehrenreich, author of "Bright-Sided: How the Relentless Promotion of Positive Thinking Is Undermining America."

She blames much of the subprime mortgage mess and resulting financial meltdown in 2008 on this "delusionary" positive thinking.

For instance, she recounts how Michael Gelband, the onetime head of the real estate division at Lehman Bros., saw a real estate bubble as early as 2006 and warned CEO Richard Fuld that the company should rethink its business model. This moment of realism and candour got Gelband fired.

"Brokers and buyers were all whipped up, any realistic thoughts were deemed negative and not worthy, so they fired people like him,
" Ehrenreich says.

Lehman filed for bankruptcy protection in 2008. Its collapse helped spark a financial crisis that spread across the globe.

The positivity delusion isn't restricted to institutional corporate types. It infects individual traders as well. I found out the hard way.

"Averaging down" on a stock can be one of the more delusional methods of investing. It means buying a stock when its price dips with the hope that it will rise back to its highest point.

During the Internet stock craze in the late '90s, I bought about 8,000 shares of PSInet, a local Internet service provider, for about $6 a share. By March 2000, it had run up to more than $100 a share (split-adjusted). I lived high, borrowed against it, got a Mercedes.

Then the share price started dropping and my positivity delusion kicked in full throttle. I averaged down when it dropped to $40, then $22, then again at $6. I stopped averaging down about the same time I dumped the Mercedes and dusted off my old Yugo. PSInet went bankrupt; I came close.

"Averaging down makes little sense," says Dan Solin, author of the immodestly titled "The Smartest Retirement Book You'll Ever Read." "It's one of these myths that investors are fed in the financial media. The market is telling you the stock is losing value."

Also, beware of "experts" conveying their biases on an unsuspecting public. Let's say a broker bought a large position in Company X at $20 per share.

But it's recently dropped to $15. So he goes on CNBC or some financial show and says it's a real buy at $15. Well, a charitable reading is that he might be brimming with positivity bias and really wants to convey that to the viewer.

Or maybe he's pumping the stock, hoping enough viewers will buy to push the price back to $20 so the broker can get out without a loss. Either way, it's probably a good idea to switch to the Weather Channel.

"We look upon too much positive exposure on CNBC or other media as a contrarian indicator," says Nicholas Haffenreffer, a portfolio manager with Torray Investments in Bethesda. "It gets us a bit nervous if people on TV are talking a lot about one of our positions."

A hot market and the positivity delusions it generates make his job a lot tougher.

"Clients often ignore risk in a rising market," he says. "They forget the rules: that cycles happen. Markets do drop, so you have to hedge. People just don't want to hear that."

Despite the downside, isn't the positivity bias a catalyst for our individual genius? Without that hope, that optimism, would Thomas Edison have invented the light bulb? Would Steve Jobs have built a single gadget? Would Ron Popeil have developed spray hair in a can?

"Positivity enhances our ability to create and explore," says Sharot, who also teaches at Harvard. "It's how things get done. We need it. It's part of our evolution."

Optimism is firmly rooted in American culture. The spiritual father of the positive thinking movement was a 19th-century spiritualist, teacher and healer by the name of Phineas Quimby.

Quimby rebelled against old-style Calvinism, thinking its austere nature depressed people and caused "disease-inducing guilt." He disregarded conventional medicines and instead relied on positive thought to heal the body and foster a clear mind.

A contemporary equivalent of Quimby might be the ever-cheerful pastor Joel Osteen. He preaches the power of positive thinking and the prosperity gospel - "God wants you to be rich" - from a megachurch in Houston. Osteen commutes there from a $10 million mansion. Positive thinking has served him well.

Despite that, old-style American Calvinism, while not a load of laughs, has a lot to do with American wealth and development.

So what is the remedy? Sharot says that since we are inclined to ignore negative information about our investment and embrace positive information, we have to create some distance from the investment.

"If you are going to make an investment in something, imagine that it's your neighbour making the investment, not yourself, and then when you evaluate it you're likely to be much more objective," she says.

It's generally a good idea to stay away from any situation that you know you could not sustain long-term, says Justin Sydnor, a behaviour economist at the University of Wisconsin.

"You have to ask yourself, what are you going to do in the future that's going to change what you did in the past?" he says. "Otherwise you are just falsely believing things will get better in the future."

And get out from under the ether of a smooth sales pitch.

"When a policeman stops you and asks for your license, he checks the license and registration - he won't take your word for it. If you are investing, you have to do the same thing," says Lori Schock, head of investor education at the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Ehrenreich says the answers are pretty simple.

"Work hard. Be realistic. Don't fall for simple pitches that cloud your thinking - don't let all these motivational speakers and self-help coaches block out warning signs that something bad might be on the horizon," she says.

"Things aren't going to get better just by wishing for it."


- The Washington Post



I know I no longer average down, average up though.
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04-14-2014, 08:42 AM
Post: #34
RE: Positivity Can Change Your Life
There's a difference between being positive and being retarded I think.

Jumping out a 20th story window, drifting past the 10th story and saying to yourself 'Hey, so far so good!' is retarded.

Thinking that your wife has quit smoking cigarettes because you start to see cigar butts around when you go home is probably retarded.

Putting a positive spin on things and hoping for the best is definitely not retarded. At all.

come for the calo, stay for the yoshida brotha
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04-14-2014, 10:51 AM
Post: #35
RE: Positivity Can Change Your Life
(04-14-2014 08:42 AM)Winnson Wrote:  There's a difference between being positive and being retarded I think.

Jumping out a 20th story window, drifting past the 10th story and saying to yourself 'Hey, so far so good!' is retarded.

Thinking that your wife has quit smoking cigarettes because you start to see cigar butts around when you go home is probably retarded.

Putting a positive spin on things and hoping for the best is definitely not retarded. At all.

As always, moderation is the key.

I guess it didn't matter whether we elected Clinton or Trump.
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04-15-2014, 01:45 AM
Post: #36
RE: Positivity Can Change Your Life
Yeah, those super positivity nutbags can wear on you after a spell.

come for the calo, stay for the yoshida brotha
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09-09-2014, 08:08 AM
Post: #37
RE: Positivity Can Change Your Life
TTT

Positivity rocks, and I might want Don to do some readings for me soon, so I'm going to bump all his threads, especially the positive ones!

TTT

come for the calo, stay for the yoshida brotha
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09-11-2014, 07:48 AM
Post: #38
RE: Positivity Can Change Your Life
"Yes we can!"
[Image: Barack-Obama-arrogance1.jpg]

come for the calo, stay for the yoshida brotha
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02-24-2020, 04:38 AM
Post: #39
RE: Positivity Can Change Your Life
Positivity, or proof that Ignorance is Bliss?




[Image: 34c97fadd3c3689fd12e1de767ddc3ca.jpg]

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.”
― Leonardo da Vinci
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02-24-2020, 04:43 AM
Post: #40
RE: Positivity Can Change Your Life
The Televangelist-in-Chief: Trump and the Prosperity Gospel
Quote:By Drew Pendergrass | November 12, 2017

Paula White, a wealthy televangelist and longtime friend of Donald Trump, has become an unlikely leader of American Christianity. The first clergywoman to pray at a presidential inauguration, White now serves as the head of Trump’s Evangelical Advisory Board, acting as his ambassador to the Religious Right. Trump and White are perfect for one another—both live lavish lifestyles, have been investigated by Congress, and exemplify a branch of Pentecostal Christianity called the “prosperity gospel.”

Unlike more traditional Christians, who believe that material success cannot be guaranteed in this life, White joins other megachurch preachers like Creflo Dollar in preaching that prosperity will come to the faithful—so long as they behave:

In this season, the people of God are going to experience unprecedented favor! Opportunities we would have never found, promotions we could have never earned, blessings we could have never worked for in years are coming our way! … I want you positioned to receive His favor—triple favor! Are you ready? God is at work, and He has chosen you for such a time as this!

Of course, to be positioned to receive His favor, one must send White a generous financial gift of $1,000 or more.

[Image: Screen-Shot-2017-11-05-at-5-53-28-PM.png]

“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.”
― Leonardo da Vinci
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