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it's a real mess in Afghanistan right now.
09-03-2021, 07:05 AM
Post: #32
RE: it's a real mess in Afghanistan right now.
In June, Anatol Levin of the Quincy Institute gave an explanation for why the Taliban could take over Afghanistan quickly after US forces left, which the Taliban did:
Quote:However, given the deep corruption of the current Afghan regime, its tough internal divisions and the demoralization of most of the military, it is unlikely that it will be able to survive for a long time.

The same applies to the fall of the Afghan state to the mujahideen in the spring of 1992 and the rise of the Taliban in 1994-1996. The first reason for this is the dense network of family and tribal ties, as well as local agreements, which linked local government forces and the Taliban. For many years, a well-known strategy for Pashtun families was to send one son to the army or the police and the other son to the Taliban, so that the family was covered, whoever wins. This means that at a certain point, when it becomes clear that one of the parties is losing (and this is unlikely to be the Taliban), the elders of the families will order the sons of the losing side to return home.

Moreover, when it comes to dealing with enemy militants (again, at least in Pashtun areas), the Taliban took an essentially medieval approach in the 1990s. Those who surrendered on time were allowed to return home with personal weapons, and the Taliban invariably kept their word in accordance with their own code of honor. Even many enemy commanders were allowed to peacefully resign or join the Taliban, although some had to flee or die. On the other hand, as in the Middle Ages, the garrison, which fought to the last, faced an unenviable fate. And since no one wants to surrender last, the result can be a domino effect, since the surrender of one garrison will automatically lead to the surrender or collapse of all others in the region.

Levin notes however that this applies in particular to Pashtun families and tribes, and that the Taliban is not as connected to minority groups of Afghanistan, like the Hazara Shiites with whom Iran has relations. The Pashtuns are generally focused in the central, southern, and eastern parts of the country.

Looking at the map chart I posted earlier, when I reviwed it early today and saw that in July 20 the Taliban took had past Northern Alliance stronghold of northern/northeast Afghanistan bordered by Russia and China, along with seeing how much was controlled by the Taliban, it was a major sign that the rest of Afghanistan could soon after fall to the Taliban. This is because that northern and northeastern part was a resistance area (Northern Alliance) against the Taliban even in the 1990's and early 2000's when the Taliban held power in most of Afghantisan.
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RE: it's a real mess in Afghanistan right now. - Rako - 09-03-2021 07:05 AM

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