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JP morgan: Corona Lockdowns have caused MORE DEATHS than the virus itself
05-21-2020, 01:00 PM
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JP morgan: Corona Lockdowns have caused MORE DEATHS than the virus itself
[Image: lockdown%20jpm.jpg?itok=9tHjwLE8]

Figure 2 below show virus spread rates before and after lockdown for different countries around the world, and Figure 1 shows the spread for US states that have re-opened. In particular, regression shows that infection rates declined, not increased, after lockdowns ended (for US states we show most recent R0 vs R0 on the day of lockdown end, and for countries we show infection rates). For example, the data in Figure 2 shows a decrease in infection rates after countries eased national lockdowns with >99% statistical significance. Indeed, virtually everywhere, infection rates have declined after reopening even after allowing for an appropriate measurement lag. This means that the pandemic and COVID-19 likely have its own dynamics unrelated to often inconsistent lockdown measures that were being implemented.


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