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Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
12-27-2019, 06:32 AM (This post was last modified: 12-27-2019 06:33 AM by pilgrim.)
Post: #1
Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
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Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents

The S&P 500 has returned more than 50% since President Trump was elected, more than double the average market return of presidents three years into their term, according to Bespoke Investment Group.
Historically, years three and four garner the highest market returns for U.S. presidents.
The S&P will have to gain about 6% in 2020 to beat the average presidential return.


President Donald Trump’s stock market stacks up well against the majority of his presidential predecessors.

The S&P 500 has returned more than 50% since Trump was elected, more than double the 23% average market return of presidents three years into their term, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group dating to 1928.

The bellwether index gained more than 28% this year, well above the average 12.8% return of year three for past U.S. presidents.

[Image: 106311521-157720646894312242019_presiden...;amp;h=416]

“Year three has been by far the best year of the cycle with an average gain of 12.81%, and the playbook has stuck to the script in year three of the current cycle,” the firm said in a note to clients last month.

Despite the volatility from the U.S.-China trade war, 2019 has been a year of all-time highs for the major stock averages. The S&P 500 crossed 3,200 for the first time ever last week, hitting its seventh round-number milestone of 2019. While business investment slumped due to uncertainty surrounding the world’s two largest economies, public market investors remained confident enough to put money into stocks.


“Year three has been by far the best year of the cycle with an average gain of 12.81%, and the playbook has stuck to the script in year three of the current cycle,” the firm said in a note to clients last month.

Despite the volatility from the U.S.-China trade war, 2019 has been a year of all-time highs for the major stock averages. The S&P 500 crossed 3,200 for the first time ever last week, hitting its seventh round-number milestone of 2019. While business investment slumped due to uncertainty surrounding the world’s two largest economies, public market investors remained confident enough to put money into stocks.

Trump’s market got a boost from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and the central bank, which lowered interest rates three times this year, the first time since the end of the financial crisis. The Fed slashed rates on fears of slowing growth at home and abroad. Trump was highly critical of Powell for not lowering rates more and faster, often mentioning the near $15 trillion in negative yielding government securities outside the U.S.

Markets were also helped by one of the tightest labor markets in history, with the unemployment rate currently at 3.5%, its lowest since 1969. And since Americans were working, they were also spending. The strong U.S. consumer held the economy up during some reported manufacturing contractions. Consumers also held strong amid a messy bond market, when shorter-term bond yields rose above long-term yields, causing the yield curve to invert, a phenomenon known to precede recessions. The curve has since steepened and is no longer inverted.

Trump’s third year is above average, but not the best of any past president. In 2013, former President Barack Obama’s stock market returned more than 32%, as the economy bounced back from the Great Recession.

Trump’s first year was about triple the presidential average, with the S&P 500 gaining 19.4% compared with the average 5.7%.

More: https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/26/trumps-s...dents.html
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12-27-2019, 06:34 AM
Post: #2
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
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I was just talking to my neighbor yesterday about what a vibrant economy we are having. There are all kind of jobs if people want to go get them. Amazon here can't get enough people. If you want to work you can right now.
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12-27-2019, 06:34 AM (This post was last modified: 12-28-2019 06:22 AM by pilgrim.)
Post: #3
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
My neighbor was pointing out that they couldn't get enough people to fill tech jobs lately.
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12-27-2019, 07:59 AM (This post was last modified: 12-27-2019 08:00 AM by karasu.)
Post: #4
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
How about Gross National Happiness!??!

[Image: 8730130_f520.jpg]
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12-27-2019, 08:03 AM
Post: #5
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
"New survey shows Americans are unhappier than they’ve been in years

Americans are as unhappy as they’ve been in years — and it seems to be a trend.

That’s one of the main takeaways from Wednesday’s release of the annual “World Happiness Report,” put out to coincide with the United Nations’ International Day of Happiness.

the US dropped in the rankings for the third straight year and is now the 19th happiest nation on Earth. (The happiest? Finland, apparently.) That’s America’s worst showing ever......."-------


https://www.vox.com/2019/3/21/18275796/h...nking-2019
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12-27-2019, 08:07 AM
Post: #6
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
"The Gross National Happiness of Bhutan


When the country first creaked open its doors, peeked out at the rest of the world and contemplated how to catch up, it looked to its own culture and strong Buddhist faith for answers. The result was an emphasis not on GDP (though that’s increased hugely, as has life expectancy and almost all other barometers of development), but on the health and happiness of the country and all the creatures that live within its diminutive borders."-------


https://geographical.co.uk/people/cultur...ght-bhutan
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12-27-2019, 09:18 AM (This post was last modified: 12-27-2019 10:16 AM by pilgrim.)
Post: #7
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
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This thread was about the economy and how it's doing at this point compared to past presidents. If you think there needs to be another thread about happiness indicators then lets make one.
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12-28-2019, 05:25 AM
Post: #8
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
(12-27-2019 09:18 AM)pilgrim Wrote:  .
This thread was about the economy and how it's doing at this point compared to past presidents. If you think there needs to be another thread about happiness indicators then lets make one.


I think what I posted is a fine fit here on this thread Big Grin
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12-28-2019, 05:03 PM
Post: #9
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
[Image: donald-trump-quote-lbf2w9z.jpg]
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12-28-2019, 08:03 PM
Post: #10
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
The Deep state needs for the economy to crash before the election, if it is to have any chance of stealing the election.
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12-28-2019, 11:09 PM
Post: #11
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
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Jho, when and where is that from? I can't imagine that it's recent.


Red, do you think the deep state even wants to steal the next election. I can't imagine they would want to start over with a new candidate.

Maybe I'm crazy but I've noticed presidents go into office saying one thing and often they seem to change once they are sitting in the White house. I first noticed it with Bush. I think the Deep State makes these guys give and take so they can get some of what they want also.

I don't think Trump has sold out, but I do think he has managed to work within the established system somewhat.
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12-29-2019, 04:41 AM
Post: #12
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
(12-28-2019 05:03 PM)jho Wrote:  [Image: donald-trump-quote-lbf2w9z.jpg]


I agree with Trump. Wall$treet is threatening a crash every-time there is hint of rise in interest rates but eventually the MASSIVE consumer-debt will reveal itself and when interest rates are already low.....it's going to be a MESS!
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12-29-2019, 04:42 AM
Post: #13
RE: Trump stock market rally is far outpacing past US presidents
.....and result: An Even GREATER FALL in Gross National Happiness in a country that already has a LOW GNH score!
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