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Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
01-12-2019, 06:17 AM
Post: #1
Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
could this SHUTDOWN cost Trump a lot of LOST VOTES in 2020?


"Federal workers affected by the government shutdown have more than $400 million in mortgage and rent payments due this month, and it could cause chaos for the US housing market



Federal workers not receiving pay owe $249 million in mortgage payments and $189 million in rent payments this month, according to Zillow.

Some federal housing programs such as Federal Housing Administration loans, Veterans Affairs loans, and USDA loans are experiencing delays.

Additionally, the Department of Housing and Urban Development cannot pay rental assistance to landlords who provide roughly 100,000 low-income Americans with affordable housing.

As the shutdown enters a record-tying 21st day, a number of worries are piling up, ranging from looming mortgage payments for federal workers to missing rent assistance from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).

The problems have left workers worried about making ends meet, potential buyers frozen out of loans, and affordable housing experts concerned about evictions.

Missing paychecks mean missed payments"------


https://www.businessinsider.com/governme...ing-2019-1
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01-12-2019, 06:19 AM
Post: #2
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
I would imagine that if this SHUTDOWN has a negative impact to a significant portion of citizen voters then it could have negative impact to Trump's potential for WINNING a 2nd term
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01-12-2019, 06:27 AM
Post: #3
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
You could also blame the dems for causing this.
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01-12-2019, 06:38 AM
Post: #4
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
(01-12-2019 06:27 AM)Señor Penis Wrote:  You could also blame the dems for causing this.

I think the President will be held accountable as the acting CEO of the corporation
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01-12-2019, 07:12 AM
Post: #5
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
Trump's biggest problem is demographics. From the last election until the next around 4 million new Democrats eligible to vote will have been added to the rolls due to legal immigration alone. Texas and Arizona will almost certainly flip to blue in 2020. Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are all state where Trump barely won and could flip.
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01-12-2019, 10:37 AM
Post: #6
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
(01-12-2019 07:12 AM)Count Iblis Wrote:  Trump's biggest problem is demographics. From the last election until the next around 4 million new Democrats eligible to vote will have been added to the rolls due to legal immigration alone. Texas and Arizona will almost certainly flip to blue in 2020. Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Wisconsin are all state where Trump barely won and could flip.

Who do they run though?

Michelle? Hillary again? Chelsea Clinton? Bernie? Elizabeth Warren?

If Trump builds a wall, then he has a chance to get most of the votes that he got 1st time around.

Either way, it seems if Dems eek out the next Presidential election, the US is headed for civil war. The better question is whether there is an economic collapse before that.
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01-12-2019, 11:39 AM
Post: #7
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
Rep. Tulsi Gabbard has unofficially announced a run. This could be quite interesting. She's a Progressive, which is problematic in its own right, but she's way more honest than Sanders, Warren, and especially Hillary. She's also pretty rock solid on foreign policy issues. I'm not sure if Americans will elect a Hindu though.

I think the next recession will happen in 2021 (regardless of who gets elected) so I don't expect it will be a factor in the election.

I also think that there will be a civil war but I don't see it happening soon. Maybe it will happen in 20 years.
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01-25-2019, 05:34 AM
Post: #8
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
Even Newt Gingrich thinks Trump's deal for his border wall is a 'mistake,' and hardline conservatives are upset the president's proposals are getting 'increasingly weak'-----

https://www.businessinsider.com/newt-gin...ake-2019-1
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01-25-2019, 05:35 AM
Post: #9
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
Wilbur Ross, Trump's MILLIONAIRE commerce secretary, says he doesn't understand why federal workers are going to food banks during government shutdown------

https://www.businessinsider.com/governme...nks-2019-1
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01-25-2019, 05:45 AM
Post: #10
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
We are already in an information civil war.

That is what de-platforming and censorship and political correctness run amok, is.
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01-25-2019, 08:28 AM
Post: #11
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
Trump and the Republicans in Congress had 2 years to fund the wall and repeal Obamacare and they did jack shit. The GOP is very quickly going the way of the Whig Party. The resulting power vacuum will be filled but I don't see any current 3rd party being able to do it. Most 3rd parties are communists and thus won't appeal to current Republicans. I don't think the Libertarian or Constitution parties will be able to fill the gap either. It will have to be a populist party, IMO.
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01-25-2019, 02:40 PM
Post: #12
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
Karasu, when do you predict the next recession is?
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01-25-2019, 02:52 PM
Post: #13
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
(01-25-2019 02:40 PM)Señor Penis Wrote:  Karasu, when do you predict the next recession is?

I can't Predict exact timing but I can advise PREPARATION! I do believe it could be soon.....but that does not mean it will happen.

I advise to prepare for ALL eventualities. I believe that Mr. Bogle(RIP) is one capital example for the contemporary gentleman to fashion himself after in his aspiration to become a traditional gentleman of regular habit and good standing.

Even though Mr. Bogle promoted a dollar cost averaging index strategy he did (before his passing)recently suggest now may not be the best time to go "all in".


I have also noted a COMMON theme among the successful mentors I study....they all seem to be AVID READERS
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01-25-2019, 04:57 PM
Post: #14
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
Its been propped up for a goddman decade. Call me a cynic, but we are way overdue for the financial BIG ONE.
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01-26-2019, 04:34 AM
Post: #15
RE: Could SHUTDOWN cost Trump 2nd Term?
One of the best predictors of recessions is the yield spread (10 year Treasury yield minus 2 year Treasury yield). Recessions happen roughly a year after this goes negative. The yield spread has been declining in a roughly linear fashion since Jan. 2011. Using a linear least squares fit from the time the spread peaked in Jan. 2011 until yesterday I extrapolate that it goes negative on Jan 10, 2021. Obviously I can't predict the exact date that it goes negative, but this should give a rough idea. A few months ago I had done a similar calculation and predicted that it would go negative in late 2020. So my updated calculation suggests a recession in early 2022.
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