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Full Version: China to End One Child Policy?
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"Back in 1978, the Chinese politburo enacted the "one-child policy", whose main purpose was to "alleviate social, economic, and environmental problems" in China as a result of the soaring population. According to estimates, the policy prevented more than 250 million births between 1980 and 2000, and 400 million births from about 1979 to 2011. And while not applicable to everyone, in 2007 approximately 35.9% of China's population was subject to a one-child restriction.

Regardless of the numbers, things are about to change: with the Chinese economy now having peaked and suddenly finding itself in rapid deceleration with excess credit growth providing virtually no boost to marginal growth, the Chinese government is forced to reexamine 35 years of social policy in order to extract growth from the one place where for nearly 4 decades it had tried to stifle: demographics.

According to the 21st Business Herald which cited sources close to the National Population and Family Planning Commission, China may relax its one-child policy at end-2013 or early-2014 (read end) by allowing families to have two children if at least one parent is from a one-child family. A plan for allowing all families to have two children after 2015 is also being reviewed.

According to Bank of America's Ting Lu, the news is reliable and is in line with the bank's view. BAC expects around 9.5 million babies to be born as a result of such reform. China’s A-share market welcomed the news on Friday with baby-related stocks up sharply.

To say that this is a paradigm demographic shift at the world's most populous country is an understatement."
yeah. it's already ended.

this flies in the face of "depopulation"

if your parents are both "only childs" then you can have 2 kids now.

also no restriction for ethnic minorities.
Bank of America research report:


"With slowing population growth, China’s population could peak by 2020 at below
1.4bn and then decline rapidly. The 2010 census suggests that China’s total fertility
rate has dropped to a surprising low of 1.18 in 2010 from 1.33 in 2005. The Chinese
population has been aging rapidly, with those aged 65 or over at 9.1% in 2011 and
likely to reach 29.3% by 2050. The gender ratio is very imbalanced, with the male-to-
female ratio at birth surging to118:100 in 2010 from 106:100 in 1980. In 2030,
23mn (or 10%) of males aged 20-45 will likely be unable to find their other halves."
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